Tillmans Corner, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

282
FXUS64 KMOB 160048
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
748 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 724 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

 - HIGH risk of rip currents Sunday night into Monday for coastal
   Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

 - Increasing concern for the potential of severe storms along a
   squall line that slides across the area late Sunday into early
   Monday. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are the main
   threats. A strong (EF2+) tornado can not be ruled out near or
   east of the I-65 corridor.

 - Increasing confidence in at least 4-6 hours of below freezing
   temperatures early Tuesday morning behind a strong cold front
   across our interior counties in south Alabama and south
   Mississippi. Strong marine winds are expected early Monday
   morning behind the front with gale force gusts.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE for Severe Weather Overnight Tonight...
Issued at 724 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A line of severe thunderstorms continues to develop this evening
across the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss region, currently draping from
Memphis southwest through Shreveport. This line is expected to
continue to strengthen and move east this evening, likely
beginning to reach portions of our southeast Mississippi and
interior southwest Alabama counties between 11pm and 12am.
Forecast guidance has trended more robust with the line of storms,
and even entertaining the potential for discrete/semi-discrete
supercell thunderstorms ahead of the line. Best potential for
discrete to semi-discrete storms appears to be near and east of
the I-65 corridor. With the line itself, damaging wind gusts up to
70mph are possible along with embedded tornadoes. If we get
robust discrete to semi-discrete storms, tornadoes will be the
primary hazards with those in addition to damaging wind gusts.
Strong shear and ample low level instability will foster the
potential for strong tornadoes as well with any discrete storms.
The line is anticipated to make it to the I-65 corridor by 3 or
4am, exiting our forecast area by 6 or 7am. The best timing for
discrete supercells along and east of the I-65 corridor appears to
be between 2am and 6am prior to passage of the line.

To dive into the details of things, overall forecast trends have
been towards a better overlap of forcing, instability, and shear.
Models have become more enthused about modest upper difluence
overspreading the area as the line of storms moves in from the
west. Ample shear around 40 to 45 knots with a bulk of that packed
within the lowest 3km`s will support very large, curved hodographs
yielding around 200 to 300 m2/s2 of low level SRH. Ample
instability will also be in place, with CAPE values reaching
upwards of 1,500 to 2,000j/kg and 3CAPE values approaching
150j/kg. This will favor storms to be maintained in the line
itself along with the potential of discrete to semi-discrete
supercells ahead of the line. These storms ahead of the line may
have a hard time initially getting going despite the improving
environment as weak SRI around 20 to 25 knots will support mini
spinnies in a highly sheared low level environment. It will likely
take a few storm mergers to get a large enough robust updraft to
take full advantage of the environment. If storms can do this,
then strong tornadoes are possible. Otherwise, the main show would
end up being with the line itself.

The line will propagate across the forecast area as a
QLCS, with damaging winds and embedded tornadoes possible. 3km
shear vectors aren`t perfect with respect to line orientation per
model guidance, but any north-south oriented segments of the line
will be more favorably oriented to support more robust bowing
segments and potential for QLCS tornadoes. Overall anticipation
will be for the line to be capable of producing damaging wind
gusts to 70mph, along with a few embedded tornadoes in any bookend
vortices associated with north/south oriented segments. If one of
these bookends/mesovorts can sustain themselves for long enough,
a strong tornado can`t be ruled out, particularly with any deeper
mesocyclones that can develop and maintain themselves within the
QLCS. MM/25

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

This was honestly one of the more difficult forecasts in quite
some time with the evolution of the next 24 to 48 hours. A lot of
pieces are still coming together; however, concern for strong
damaging winds and a few tornadoes is increasing across much of
the area as a line of storms move in late tonight into early
Monday morning. Below freezing temperatures will then quickly move
in on Monday night leading to widespread sub-freezing conditions.
So lets break it down.

Synopsis...Little has changed on the evolution of this system over
the last 24 hours and most tweaks have been in the smaller scale
environments and trends. Moisture has begun to surge northward in
advance of a rather potent upper trough that has begun to dig into
the central US today. A potent upper jet will quickly overspread
a rather large open warm sector this afternoon and overnight
leading to increasing ascent across most of the eastern US. A
stout cold front will quickly sweep across the Mississippi valley
into the southeastern US sunday night. Timing of the front has
become much more in line with storms likely arriving in our far
northwest around midnight and exiting stage east around 5 to 6 AM.
Along the front, widespread showers and thunderstorms will
quickly sweep across the area. Once the front sweeps through a
bitter cold surprise will rush in as winds turn northwesterly.
Temperatures will quickly fall into the 40s behind the front
before struggling to reach 50 degrees during the afternoon. Some
lingering showers could be possible during the late morning to
around noon time and depending on quickly things cool behind the
front we would not be shocked if someone see a Gee Whiz sleet
pellet mainly north of highway 84. Skies should clear during the
afternoon. Temperatures will quickly drop Monday night to below
freezing with wind chills into the mid to upper 20s areawide. By
Tuesday, a anomalously strong high pressure will build over the
desert southwest and persist for a while. Temperatures will be
chilly on Tuesday before gradually warming up. Given the dry
northwesterly flow and large upper ridge to our west, do not
expect anything but sunshine and warm temperatures through the
better part of the next two weeks.

Strong to Severe Storms...To say this severe weather forecast was
difficult is an understatement as there seems to be a fine line
between a whole lot of nothing (all bark no bite) and a more
significant event with widespread damaging winds and a couple of
tornadoes. Overall the environment will be rather supportive for
strong to severe storms sometime after midnight tonight through
early Monday morning (mainly around and before daybreak).
Instability should not be a limiting factor with a rather stout
elevated mixed layer for this area and time of the year
overspreading the area Sunday night. 1500 to 2000 J/KG of MLCAPE
will be possible and when coupled with rather impressive
kinematics it is easy to see why storms may be strong to severe.
Early high res guidance was rather anemic and not enthused which
honestly did not make much sense given the synoptic setup and
overall environment. However, over the past few runs this morning
we have seen a significant trend in guidance pointing towards the
line of storms being much healthier than originally though and
this jives more with the overall pattern. Unfortunately, this does
not bode well for our interior portions of southeastern
Mississippi and southwestern/south central Alabama. A rather
potent squall line is expected to quickly enter the area from the
northwest around midnight then storm eastward across the area.
Given a very stout 850 mb jet around some drier air aloft,
damaging wind gusts will likely be the primary threat with some
wind gusts up to 70 mph possible. Tag on ample low level
instability and some curvature of the hodograph and a couple of
tornadoes will also be possible and a few strong tornadoes (EF-2+)
cannot be ruled out. The best chance for severe weather will
likely be north of I-10 but a few damaging wind gusts cannot be
ruled out further south along the coast, especially if the line
remains better organized further south.

The big question will come east of I-65 as we approach daybreak.
There could be a narrow window where better forcing moves in and
storms could develop ahead of the line. Looking at the environment
in this region you have rather impressive shear values supportive
of supercell thunderstorms capable of tornadoes. The question
will be the presence of a subtle capping inversion around 700mb.
Without significant forcing that cap would likely hold keeping the
main severe threat confined mainly to the line as storms would be
squashed with a lack of instability further east. However,
guidance has been improving with the forcing and if the line holds
up even an hour or two slower then there will likely be a window
where that cap can erode and storms will be able to intensify east
of I-65 around 4 to 6 AM. IF and its a big IF a couple of more
dominant supercells can manage to get going over this regime then
a localized significant (EF-2+) tornado threat would likely
materialize. This threat will likely boil down to very small
differences in environment across this area and an hour or two
faster or slower in the front will likely be the difference
between the line being the problem and a much more serious risk.
It probably won`t be something we see until it is almost happening
and future mesoscale updates later tonight will likely solidify
this potential so please stay up to date overnight and be ready
for warnings if and when they do come.

Gusty winds...Behind the front, a rather strong pressure gradient
will setup and gusty winds will be possible throughout most of the
day on Monday. Wind gusts in the 30 to 35 mph range will be
possible and we will need to monitor the forecast over the next
day or so for any need for a wind advisory. As of now probability
of exceeding 40 mph gusts is less than 10% and thus we do not have
enough confidence in exceeding advisory criteria. Nonetheless,
loose outdoor objects can still be thrown around in 30 to 35 mph
gusts and vehicles should use caution on area bridges Monday
morning.

Beach Hazards...Risk for rip currents quickly increases in the
strengthening onshore flow today with a HIGH risk expected through
the day on Monday. Surf heights will get to around 3 to 4 feet.
Surf and rip current conditions should quickly improve in the
northerly flow behind the front.

Freezing Temperatures...Behind the front, temperatures will
quickly plummet into the 30s to upper 20s Monday night on the back
of a stiff northerly wind. Probability of below freezing
temperatures on Monday will be 30 to 40 % all the way to the I-10
corridor with nearly 70 to 80% along and north of highway 84.
Given our several weeks of warm temperatures and the start of
growing season, we have issued a freeze warning for majority of
the area for Monday night. Plants will be the main impact with
this round of cold; however, wind chills Tuesday morning will be a
cold and bitter mid 20s across the area. Would be a good idea to
break back out that winter jacket. Hopefully this will be the last
time you need that jacket. BB-8

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

VFR conditions currently prevailing over the area, but ceilings
have begun to descend to MVFR along and coast. These MVFR ceilings
will spread over the entire area this evening as isolated to
scattered showers and a few storms develop ahead of a cold front
approaching from the west-northwest. The leading edge of a line of
showers and thunderstorms will move quickly eastward across the
area from midnight tonight into Monday morning. Strong and severe
thunderstorms are expected with this line of convection, with
gusty damaging winds possible. Southerly winds this evening at
12-17 knots with gusts as high as 25 knots will shift abruptly
northwesterly around 20 knots with gusts as high as 30 knots with
the passage of the front. Southwesterly low-level wind shear
around 40 knots at 2000 feet inland areas is expected ahead of the
front from 04-11z. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Onshore flow will continue to strengthen through tonight ahead of
a cold front. Winds abruptly turn northwesterly behind the front
by early Monday. Small craft conditions are expected by Monday
with frequent gale force gusts behind the front. Strong offshore
flow will persist through at least Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory
and Gale Watch have been issued. Winds and seas gradually relax
again by mid-week. BB-8

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

In the wake of the front, a very dry airmass pushes into the
area. This will allow for afternoon dewpoints to tank and for
minimum afternoon relative humidity values to dip to near 20%
despite afternoon highs in the low to mid 50`s. This combined with
some residual elevated winds around 10 mph gusting upwards of 15
to 20 mph may allow for some elevated fire weather concerns,
particularly considering we are not currently anticipating any
significant rainfall out of this system (generally less than a
half inch) in addition to the ongoing drought conditions across
the area. While we will likely remain just above red flag
criteria, there is enough there to warrant some caution when
burning on Tuesday. BB-8

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      44  51  32  55 /  90  20   0   0
Pensacola   48  55  36  55 /  90  50   0   0
Destin      49  57  38  56 /  80  60   0   0
Evergreen   41  48  29  55 /  90  30   0   0
Waynesboro  39  47  29  54 / 100  10   0   0
Camden      39  46  28  52 /  90  30   0   0
Crestview   45  54  31  56 /  90  60   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Freeze Warning from 10 PM Monday to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
     ALZ051>060-261>264.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Freeze Warning from 10 PM Monday to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for FLZ201-
     203-205.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Freeze Warning from 10 PM Monday to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ067-
     075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for
     GMZ630>636.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 AM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655-
     670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 1 PM CDT Tuesday for
     GMZ650-655-670-675.

     Gale Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$